Director Communication & Publications Presents Paper at COSATT Regional Conference in Singapore

Director Communication and Publications, Ms.Gayathri de Zoysa attended the COSATT Regional Conference, ‘Re-energizing the SAARC Process’ on 21 August in Singapore. The event was jointly organised by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) and The Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore with the participation of Heads of South Asian think tanks. Here, she presented the following paper titled “Is South Asia moving Forward Together” focusing on: the current strategic environment in South Asia and the role of SAARC; how other sub-regional organisations could affect the progress of SAARC.
 
Is South Asia Moving Forward Together?
 
This paper will address 2 key areas:

1. The current strategic environment in South Asia and the role of SAARC
2. How other sub-regional organisations could affect the progress of SAARC and how SAARC can move forward in that context

 
South Asia (as we know) is a primary stakeholder in the global security architecture. The region is strategically located along one of the busiest sea routes joining the East and the West. Being a geopolitical hotspot with access to the Indian Ocean provides a myriad of opportunities while conversely inciting security threats to the region. In the present context, for instance it is clear that traditional and nontraditional security concerns permeate the regional security landscape. These issues endanger the security status quo and further hinder the advancement of the region in social, economic and trade spheres. It is palpable that the entrenched uncertainty of actions among the regional nuclear powers, deep-rooted distrust and border disputes among countries remain threats to regional security. Notwithstanding these traditional breaches, the spread of ISIS terrorism, illegal migration and exodus of refugees, drug trafficking and the effects of environmental degradation and climate change are nontraditional security threats, which have pervaded South Asia.
  
Against such a backdrop, the contention is whether the states in the South Asian region are able to address or cope with these threats individually or the security issues warrant unified action of a regional organisation such as SAARC. Although individual nations have and are still attempting to counter these issues grounded on self-interests, the undeniable truth is that a collective course of action is essential to counter, particularly, transnational security threats. Thus, the catalyst for stable regional security is achieving a balance between individual state interests and regional aspirations. However, SAARC, which came into existence in 1985 has now been coined as a dormant organization due to the lack of consensus on regional issues and the present gridlock on collective action.
   
Even though SAARC has not delivered as expected in terms of a unified course of action, the   truth is that the role of this regional body cannot be substituted but can only be supplemented by another regional organization such as BIMSTEC or BBIN. SAARC is an essential multilateral platform for regional dialogue and action, which is similar to EU or ASEAN on multiple facets. As such, it particularly aims to grapple with threats to regional security through dialogue. Such initiatives help mitigate the effects of these security concerns and helps foster economic development and prosperity.
 
Therefore, it is necessary to understand the nuances and multiple facets of the regional security environment to better address these by unified actions contrary to solely individualistic behaviour of a single country. With regards to traditional and nontraditional security threats to the region, such as the arms race among regional powers, disputes and tensions over territorial borders, claims on continental shelf boundaries and the jurisdictional rights over marine resources, states act conceding to national interests under the notion of self-preservation and political will to safeguard its rights. However, the inevitable arms race between states is undermining peace within the region.
 
In the contemporary and nontraditional domain, South Asia has become a drug trafficking hot spot in the Indian Ocean Region. For instance, there is an alarming flow of opium and other illicit drugs transiting through the land and sea routes`. Adding to transnational issues, mass migration and the refugee crisis have become rising threats to multiple countries in the region. This illegal influx and outflow of refugees and migrants result in porous borders and vulnerable coastal waters, which creates a safe heaven for criminals and terrorists to operate in and out of the region.
 
In addition, climate change poses a grave threat on the people, the states and the region’s security. The rising trends of natural disasters forecast far severe floods, droughts and hurricanes to impact the South Asian region than experienced in recent years. According to the World Risk Report analysis, majority of the countries in the South Asian Region are categorized as highly vulnerable to disasters with limited capabilities, capacities and adaptability to cope with the after effects. For instance, though individual countries assisted tremendously in the wake of the Nepal earthquake and the devastating floods and landslides that recently affected Sri Lanka, a collective effort of the region was limited. This further warrants an active disaster relief and recovery management system with regional consensus.
 
Another heightened threat to South Asia is the rising extremism and the presence of ISIS in the region. According to Fred Strasser of the United States Institute of Peace, ISIS presence in South Asia has become more prominent and extremist groups within the region provide the avenue for the spread of the Islamic State. It is evident that though ISIS is losing its hold in Iraq and Syria, the terrorist group is pervading vulnerable regions with social divides such as South Asia and South East Asia. The ISIS presence in South Asia is not an issue of a single country, it is undoubtedly, a threat to the entire region.
 
Against such a backdrop, it is unwise to believe that theses heightened threats to the regional security landscape, traditional or nontraditional it maybe, can be addressed in individualistic, self-interested rhetoric and course of actions. Regional cooperation, through an established organ such as SAARC is essential for a multilateral and coordinated action. It is important to understand that SAARC should not limit its role as an intergovernmental coordination body, but should be a platform for transnational discussions and cross border initiatives. These perceived and evident threats to the security of the region warrants the present role of SAARC, as that of a facilitator, to expand to that of an executor. Without a unified approach to curb the heightened threat to regional security, the uncertainty among states and pervasive security threats also impose an enormous economic cost on the region.
 
As such it is essential that states in South Asia recognize and strike a balance between self-interests of individual states vis-à-vis collective action that benefit the region as a whole. Notably, this concept is clearly portrayed in ASEAN, which aids economic development and enhances the trade potential of countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines. Furthermore, countries such as Singapore and Malaysia have a profound impact on moulding the ASEAN economic and trade potential through their success whilst ensuring a stable regional security environment.
 
This level of regional cooperation, however, does not assume that South East Asia is immune to issues on sovereignty claims, accords on territorial waters and moreover to transnational security threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking. It is that ASEAN has been successfully balancing the interests of the member states and the region through dialogue and collective course of action. Undoubtedly, this is an example for South Asia. It is clear that the regional security and stability with collective action result in economic development.
 
How BIMSTEC could affect initiatives of SAARC
 
The establishment of BIMSTEC (The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) in 1997 and the gradual rise of the organisation in prominence in regional issues has been attributed to certain            drawbacks within SAARC that were mentioned above. The fact that Pakistan is not a member state of the said organisation has allowed for India to engage with it more willingly than it did with SAARC without the differences between the two states sabotaging the functioning of the organisation. However, the fact that all member states of BIMSTEC also belong either to SAARC or ASEAN has meant that the attention the organisation gets has been less significant as member states try to follow the agendas of other regional organisations they are already a part of. The fact that the ASEAN is a successful regional organisation that has facilitated inter-regional trade could for an instance mean that Thailand and Myanmar would prioritise dealing with ASEAN over BIMSTEC.
 
However, this new found diversion could mean that SAARC could lose its position as the key regional organisation in South Asia to BIMSTEC. Although their successes have been questioned, SAARC has facilitated the introduction of many institutional mechanisms to the region and opened up avenues to encourage regional cooperation. While SAARC’s future looks bleak, it is not the same for BIMSTEC which has increased its interregional trade compared to the figures from SAARC which has been in existence for over 30 years. Conversely, though SAARC has been drawn in to a near obsolete state in some aspects recently, it has been a platform to encourage regional cooperation in South Asia which was not seen prior to its establishment in 1985. By sidestepping SAARC there would also be the cost of losing Maldives and Afghanistan who are members of SAARC but fall outside the geographical area of interest of BIMSTEC. The loss of contributions from three South Asian countries would not fare well to the idea of South Asian regional cooperation.
 
BIMSTEC provides India and other member states an opportunity to implement a plan for better regional integration with the exclusion of Pakistan with which India’s bilateral issues have been a deadlock in  SAARC. The closest issues found similar in nature in BIMSTEC is the Rohingya refugee problem between Bangladesh and Myanmar and the border dispute between Myanmar and Thailand which is however not in similar proportion to the conflict between India and Pakistan.
 
At some point down the road, SAARC member states would have to set aside their differences and decide on the fate of the organisation which is gradually losing its importance in the region. It is only through SAARC with the inclusion of all eight states in South Asia that true regional integration and cooperation could be achieved.
 
The Chinese factor has also affected the proceedings of SAARC. At the 18^th summit held in Nepal, China showed an interest in playing a more participatory role in SAARC. Presently, China is an observer state of SAARC but plays no role in BIMSTEC.
 
In conclusion, it can be stated that SAARC has a broader and more resolute role to address and alleviate the security threats that affect South Asia. Therefore, the way forward for the region is not to look for an alternative to SAARC’s multilateral platform or to change the security architecture of the region. Instead, it is to pave the way for economic development and enhancing trade on a regional and global scale. Accordingly, what is needed is the commitment from member states to strengthen the institution and reach consensus on the balance between national interest and regional benefits. If these heightened threats to the regional security landscape are unaddressed, the region will inevitably destabilize itself to an irreversible magnitude. Therefore, the future lies within a strong regional cooperation and not individualistic self-interest of states.