by Lt. Col. Palitha Herath
Published on Ceylon Today on 12th September 2024.
Introduction
George Bernard Shaw once said, “If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must man be of learning from experience”. One can say that the experience of the Sri Lankan protest has many peripheral effects on the world. Kenya, and Bangladesh flames of fire have arisen based on different forms of crisis flatforms. Giving an unprecedented deterrence to South Asia, Bangladesh's uprising too came to its climax or the ‘ripeness’ within a very short period of time. Apparently less than one month. Revolted youth enjoying the luxury of Prime Minister Sheikh Hashina's residence as it were their home, and some tend to loot the property of the residence unfolding the dark side of social unrest. General norms of many conflict escalation models become dubious due to the unimaginable escalation speed of the uprising in Bangladesh. However, various scholars have produced their views on the crisis, and it seems to have many similarities in Sri Lanka protest in year 2022.
Understanding the Conflict Triangle Framework
Dr, Johan Vincent Galtung is a Norwegian sociologist and known as the founder father of Conflict and Peace Studies. He defines violence as ‘any physical, emotional, verbal, institutional, structural or spiritual behavior behaviour, attitude, policy or condition that diminishes, dominates or destroys others and ourselves’.(Galtung, 1969). Among his many theories, the conflict triangle is widely accepted by many scholars and has been used to illustrate many conflict-related articles in the world. In his theory of conflict triangle, three tips are denoted by the three letters of A, B and C. Letters represent the concept of Attitude, Behavior and Contradictions.
Dr. Johan Galtung says that many conflicts in the world occur due to attitudinal issues of peoples and societies. Hence, it is directly involved with feelings and the thought process of the people. The attitude of the individual, or group of people (Society) may develop many contradictions and lead to behavioural actions. Finally, it will ignite in the form of peaceful actions or violent behaviours which can lead to peaceful negotiations or end in violent conflict.
Modal 1. Conflict Triangle
Overview of the 2022 Sri Lankan Protest
Terrorist organization of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam and the Government of Sri Lankan forces fought nearly three decades in the Northern and Eastern parts of Sri Lanka was militarily defeated in the year 2009. However, several social issues remain in the country as leftovers of the unresolved North and East conflict in the country. The Easter Sunday attack 2019 which took place on 21st April 2019 claimed the lives of approximately 277 including 8 suicide bombers (Central Bank Annual Report Sri Lanka, 2019) and dragged the country into further political turmoil. Aftermath of the unexpected terrorist attack on the innocent civilians of the country, the presidential election was held and victory by Mr Gotabaya Rajapaksha assigning the president of the country in November 2019.
Although he won the election, triumph had not remained for at least three months due to the outbreak of the Covid 19 pandemic in the country. The entire country was shut down, resulting in further economic turmoil in the country.
However, the growth of economic crisis during the period is not only a result of Covid 19 but also the corruption and mismanagement of the past ruling governments of the country. The scarcity of essential commodities like fuel, drugs, gas and food items encouraged the public to come into the street and claim their rights later became a mass political turmoil generally called ‘Aragalaya’ or the people's protest. Main cause is the lack of foreign exchange to meet the demand of the people.
Examining 2024 Bangladesh Uprising
Bangladesh is passing the gloomy days of agitation, violence and cruelty of the consequences of social unrest. The country become hot hotbed in Asia and a twisted hot topic in the social arena by gaining similar popularity such as the ongoing Ukraine, and Russian conflict and Isreal and Palestine conflict. The seeds of the uprising are mainly private and government students and university teachers fueled by the opposition who have taken demonstrations against the government in lite of granting 30% of the job quota for the descendants of the freedom fighters of the country. The primary demand of the protesters was to reduce the percentage of the job quota for the descendants of the freedom fighters of the country. Bangladesh also facing a high unemployment rate in comparison to other countries of south Asia.
As a result, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India seeking asylum state from the bond strategic partner of South Asia. However, deviating from the initial demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now it has taken a more ethnic violence outlook. As per the situation of the ongoing crisis, minority Hindus are mostly targeted humiliated and tortured. Law and order had deteriorated and gradually boosted to normalcy with the arrival of Dr Muhammad Yunus as Chief Advisor to the Bangladesh president. But the hard part of it is rooted deep-rooted economic setbacks cannot be settled with immediate effects.
Comparative Analysis Sri Lanka and Bangladesh Protests
Sri Lankan citizens came to thestreets due to the economic hard ships faced during the crisis. Essential substitutes such as Gas, Fuel, Medicine and other essential commodities shortages were pioneered to people who come to the street. Bad governance, awful economic policy decisions of the former government, corruption and lack of transparency were among the real seeds of the conflict. Finally, the situation opens the path to huge foreign exchange deficit in the country. Demand of the Sri Lankan demonstrators was the resignation of the president of the country.
Although Sri Lanka experienced economic consequence, Bangladesh is not for the economic down fall at all. However, Bangladesh's uprising in the year 2024 also have some similar dynamics of ‘Aragalaya’ in Sri Lanka. Mainly private and government university students, university teachers fueled by the opposition, have taken demonstrations against the government considering granting 30% of job quota for the descendants of the freedom fighters of the country. The main and primary demand of the protesters was to reduce the percentage of the job quota for the descendants of the freedom fighters of the country. Bangladesh also facing a high unemployment rate in comparison to other countries of south Asia. The death toll in the Bangladesh uprising is not yet counted to date and in the Sri Lankan situation it was counted as 10 as per the records. However, both uprisings have many similarities in the context of conducting mass protests in the country. Some of the similar dynamics are as follows:
Country wide public demonstration
Leaderless and self-motivated actions
Use of social media to encourage an uprising
Demand the prime minister to resign from the post
Vandalizing government infrastructure including state-owned television
Chart 1. Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate of South Asian countries (Asian Development Bank)
The Gross Domestic Product growth rate of the Bangladesh had been placed in the influential statues within the South Asian Region. However, due to the mass agitation it would be mostly vulnerable to have significance in the future. Due to reasons such as the fall of the local industry and the question of receiving foreign investment in the country.
The tourism industry would be hampered and due to frequent natural climate change, the consequence may further aggravate the situation in the country. Both the Sri Lankan president and prime minister of Bangladesh happened to step down due to a protest. However, post-conflict situation is more worsened in the Bangladesh comparatively with the Sri Lankan situation. Sri Lanka had very little fatalities but in Bangladesh still not determined the death rate of the crisis.
Applying the Conflict Triangle to Sri Lankan Protest
Contradictions. It was noticed that significant contradictions in Sri Lankan protests were governance and economic mismanagement of the ruling party. Sri Lanka experienced severe economic instability including crippling foreign debt, high inflation and a shortage of essential goods in the country. However, the government failed to address the issues timely and led to the gap widening between the public and the ruling elite. Consequently, contradictions embedded in corruption, and economic mismanagement fueled the frustration of people and explode a mass uprising in the country.
Attitude. During the uprising it was more evident that the attitude of the people and the government played a pivotal role hence, the uprising became more significant in Sri Lankan history. In the beginning, the government undermined the people’s attitude, but later the crisis led to widespread disturbances hindering all services and day-to-day routine of the country. Perception of the people became more violent due to the lackadaisical attitude of the government towards the demands of the people. Sence of betrayal and urgency characterized the uprising in the country. As a result, people opted to demand accountability and the systems change.
Behaviour. Violent and unrestrained behaviour demonstrated by the protesters was a direct result of attitude and contradictions. Calling for an abundance of the executive presidency, new political reforms, demonstrations and acts of civil disobedience challenge the status quo. The behaviour of the demonstrators during the protests reflects the dissatisfaction and desperation of the people and forces them to change the systems, However, the government's response in suppression using politically motivated people, police and military force escalated the nature of the conflict.
Applying the Conflict Triangle to the Bangladesh Crisis
Contradictions. Youth uprising in Bangladesh was embedded in deep engrained contradictions between the government and the people. However, the main contradictions could be identified as severe economic inequality and widespread corruption. It was triggered by the latest policy of job quotas for the descendants of freedom fighters.
Failure of government to give rapid response to youth demand was absolutely divided the trust between ruling elite and ordinary citizens. Economic maladministration, including unemployment and rising inflation, intensified public discontent and aggravated the discrepancy between government policies and the needs of the ordinary people.
Attitude. The attitude of both the government and youth supported by the opposition is very important to shape up the escalation of the conflict. However, the Bangladesh uprising came to its ripe moment within a short period of time frame. University students including the opposition, claims the resignation of the Prime Minster later turned into new dimension of harassing minority people of the country. Lots of Hindus were humiliated and widespread unrest created economic turbulence in the country. Attitude of the cruel suppression of the government and the lack of empathy further ignited the protests deepening the division of the authorities and the people.
Behaviour. The behavioural action during the Bangladesh protest included mass demonstrations, looting of public properties, arson and harassment of minorities were highlighted. Demand for the change of ruling party to turn into an ethnic crisis is a new dimension of the conflict resolution field. The dissatisfaction of the citizens actively engaged in the protest’s behavior unprecedently change at the mid of the crisis. The government response came in a way of shutting down the internet and cruel police action by killing students was highly criticized by the world. However, the end of the conflict will remain questioned hence, its ongoing crisis. Behaviour of the people and the Newley elected interim government will bloom a new era of Bangladesh in future.
Conclusion
Prediction of sustainable peace for the world is questionable in the present-day context when looking at the outlook of the world scenarios. As an extension of the same scenario, South Asia also experienced two similar patterns of conflict in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Dr. Johan Galtung book of ‘Theories of Conflict’ said, “What is positively and negatively evaluated varies from culture to culture, whether the culture is collective or individual, and from species to species”. (Galtung, 2009) Understanding the realities of crisis will be very vital to maintain sustainable peace in the world. Post-conflict situation in Sri Lanka is quate difference when comparing to Bangladesh. Fatalities of crisis is very minimal in Sri Lanka while the number of fatalities in Bangladesh still could not finalized. Destruction of government properties and private properties also high in number at the Bangladesh while Sri Lanka became comparatively very minimal.
Collaborative action of all layers of the societies of both countries needs to reestablish the broken and the paralyzed governing systems of the country. Transparency and principles of good governance will adequately provide supplementary support if applied methodically. Every dark cloud has a shining silver line. Understanding the right time for emerging silver line could immensely help to embrace peaceful societies in the world which is not easy in the complex and dynamic situation in the world.
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* Lieutenant Colonel Palitha Herath is a Military Research Officer at the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), the premier think tank on National Security established under the Ministry of Defence. The opinions expressed are his own and not necessarily reflective of the institute or the Ministry of Defence.