by Commander Amila Prasanga
Published on The Morning on 05th March 2024.
Introduction
The 21st century presents a complex and multifaceted challenge: a confluence of climate change, food insecurity, and national security concerns demanding a nuanced understanding of the intricate web of interconnected risks (IPCC, 2023). This potent mix creates a "perfect storm" with potentially devastating consequences, demanding immediate attention and proactive solutions. Within this context, islands like Sri Lanka stand particularly vulnerable, facing heightened risks of agricultural disruption, resource scarcity, and social unrest, underscoring the urgent need for concerted action. This commentary delves into exploring the cascading effects of a warming planet on food production, regional instability, and ultimately, the potential for increased conflict and insecurity.
Climate Change: The Catalyst
Climate change, driven primarily by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, disrupts weather patterns, intensifies extreme weather events, and alters agricultural landscapes. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased sea levels threaten agricultural productivity (IPCC, 2023). These vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by land degradation, soil erosion, and saltwater intrusion due to rising sea levels (FAO, 2016). These disruptions exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in food systems, particularly in developing nations already struggling with poverty and malnutrition. Islands like Sri Lanka face a heightened risk due to their geographical location and reliance on agriculture, amplifying the urgency for action to address these interconnected challenges.
Climate Change and its Ripple Effects
The rising heat and erratic weather patterns of climate change are wreaking havoc on our food systems. Extreme events like droughts, floods, and heatwaves disrupt agricultural production, leading to crop failures, reduced yields, and volatile food prices (IPCC, 2023). Water scarcity further complicates matters, as increased demand and changing precipitation patterns threaten irrigation supplies, impacting food production and potentially sparking regional tensions over this vital resource (FAO, 2016). Even our oceans, teeming with life and crucial for food security and livelihoods, are under siege. Acidification and unsustainable fishing practices jeopardize coastal communities and protein sources, adding another layer of vulnerability to an already stressed system (FAO, 2016). Furthermore; Climate change's impact on food security is not a distant threat; it's a complex ripple effect with far-reaching consequences already being felt around the world. Therefore; Islands like Sri Lanka, situated in vulnerable coastal regions, face compounding risks, amplifying the urgency for concerted action to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security and livelihoods.
Food Security Under Threat
Food insecurity, defined as the lack of access to sufficient nutritious food, becomes a pressure point when climate change disrupts food production (World Bank, 2022). The consequences of climate change for food security are dire. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO), effects of climate change on agricultural production and livelihoods are expected to intensify over time, and to vary across countries and regions. Beyond 2030, the negative impacts of climate change on the productivity of crops, livestock, fisheries, and forestry will become increasingly severe in all regions. With climate change, however, the population living in poverty could increase by between 35 and 122 million by 2030 relative to a future without climate change, largely due to its negative impacts on incomes in the agricultural sector.
The sheer number of smallholder farm families in developing countries – some 475 million – justifies a specific focus on the threat posed by climate change to their livelihoods and the urgent need to transform those livelihoods along sustainable pathways (FAO, 2023). This food insecurity not only leads to malnutrition and its associated health problems but also fuels social unrest and political instability, potentially creating fertile ground for extremism and conflict (CSIS, 2016). In Sri Lanka, where agriculture is a significant component of the economy and livelihoods, the impacts of climate change on food security are especially acute. According to the World Bank, over 20% of Sri Lankans are already classified as food insecure, struggling to meet their basic nutritional needs. Climate change threatens to push this number even higher, potentially leading to social unrest and political instability.
Food Insecurity: The Pressure Point
Climate change is intensifying the already dire issue of food insecurity, pushing millions more towards hunger and malnutrition, particularly in vulnerable regions. This brewing crisis not only threatens individual wellbeing but also has the potential to trigger social unrest, mass migration, and political instability, as seen in previous instances (CSIS, 2016). Extreme weather events further exacerbate the situation by disrupting food production, transportation, and storage, leading to shortages, price hikes, and increased vulnerability for already struggling populations (Breisinger et al., 2015).
Additionally, food scarcity and dependence on imports can become geopolitical weapons, increasing vulnerability to external manipulation and destabilizing regional relations (ISDC, 2016). The pressure on food security is a critical point of concern, demanding urgent action to address climate change and build resilience in vulnerable communities. In Sri Lanka, these challenges are particularly acute, given its susceptibility to extreme weather events and its reliance on agriculture as a key sector of the economy, necessitating comprehensive strategies to mitigate climate risks and enhance food security.
National Security: The Domino Effect
The cascading effects of climate change and food insecurity pose significant national security threats, fueling social unrest, mass migration, and resource competition (UN, 2024). Competition for dwindling resources can escalate into conflicts between communities and nations, jeopardizing regional stability and leading to humanitarian crises(UNHRC, 2023). Food insecurity can trigger mass migration, placing strain on border resources and potentially fueling social unrest in receiving countries (IOM, 2020). Furthermore, changing climate patterns can alter the spread of diseases, posing new biosecurity threats with national and international ramifications (WHO, 2023).
Furthermore, climate change directly impacts national security by displacing populations, disrupting critical infrastructure, and weakening government institutions. In Sri Lanka, these threats are particularly pressing, as the country grapples with its potential for increased social unrest, mass migration, and resource competition heightens the urgency for comprehensive strategies to address climate-related national security risks and build resilience within the region.
The Need for a Multifaceted Response
Investing in Sustainable Agriculture: Climate-smart agricultural practices, water conservation strategies, and crop diversification are crucial for resilience and food security. Implementing sustainable agricultural practices can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on food production, ensuring the availability of nutritious food for communities, including those in Sri Lanka where agriculture plays a significant role in the economy.
Strengthening Regional Cooperation: Collaborative efforts to manage water resources and ensure fair access to food can mitigate regional tensions and foster collective action. By working together, countries in the region, including Sri Lanka, can address common challenges related to food security and water scarcity, promoting stability and prosperity for all.
Investing in Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: Rapid emission reduction measures are crucial to curb climate change's worst impacts and protect food security and national security in the long term. By investing in climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including renewable energy development and infrastructure resilience projects, countries like Sri Lanka can build a more sustainable future while safeguarding their food security and national security interests.
Navigating the Storm: Collaborative Solutions
Immediate action is imperative to address the perfect storm of climate change, food insecurity, and national security threats. By investing in a multi-pronged approach, including climate-smart agriculture, strengthening social safety nets, promoting international cooperation, and conflict prevention, we can navigate this complex challenge and build a more secure future for all, including Sri Lanka. Ignoring this crisis could lead to devastating consequences for generations to come. It's time for decisive action to safeguard the well-being of present and future generations and ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for Sri Lanka and the global community
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* Commander Amila Prasanga is a Military Research Officer at the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), the premier think tank on National Security established under the Ministry of Defence. The opinions expressed are his own and not necessarily reflective of the institute or the Ministry of Defence.