On the 27th October 2017, the Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (INSSSL) held a Security Salon on the “Strategies of Major Powers in the Indian Ocean Region: Implications for Sri Lanka” at the Ministry of Defence with guest speaker Dr. Sithara Fernando, who is a senior lecturer at the Kothelawela Defence University (KDU).
The Chairman of the INSSSL and Secretary of Defence, Mr. Kapila Waidyaratne, P.C. commenced the proceedings by bringing to light that the topic at hand was an evolving one, according to the changing regional balance as well as through the different perspectives of world actors.
Mr. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera in his opening remarks said “the Security Salon has become the most popular discussion forum in Sri Lanka in a short time with military, academia and diplomatic community due to the timely topics and uniqueness" Dr. Sithara Fernando began by saying that Sri Lanka has a central role to play in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This is mainly due to its strategic position being of virtue to the three major powers in the region, the USA, India and China. The four main topics Dr. Fernando touched on were the proposed US strategy in the IOR; India’s security concerns and objectives in the region; China’s expanding maritime strategic vision and finally the implications for all of these issues on Sri Lanka.
In terms of the USA, Dr. Fernando shed light on the fact that their main means of spreading influence in the IOR is through their naval bases in various strategic locations throughout the region. Part of the US strategy is to maintain and shape regional balance of power in favour of their hegemony. He also elaborated on the fact that the US wishes to promote Indian influence in the region in order to counter the increasing influence of China in the region. This is due to the fact that the US Congress Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction has proposed close to US$ 1 trillion in defence cuts. If this proposal is implemented the US Pacific Command’s ability to execute its mission within the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean would be unfavorably affected.
However, Dr. Fernando stated that this aspect of the strategy is based on a recognition that US-India strategic cooperation will stop short of an explicit alliance. It will instead encourage a quadrilateral alignment between the US, India, Japan and Australia as democratic countries. In this context, India has its own vision for the IOR. While democratically aligning with the aforementioned countries to curb China’s assertions in the region, India also has aspirations of leadership in the very same region. Dr. Fernando outlined the challenges to India’s vision as the political rivalry with Pakistan, Pakistan’s increased economic and nuclear cooperation with China and the need for India to achieve energy securitization in the region. India’s approach to a potential war on two fronts with Pakistan and China is from a position of strength. Thus, to offset India’s disadvantage in a continental war, Indian strategists think that India can use its strategic location in the IOR to put pressure on Pakistani and Chinese shipping.
Nevertheless, Dr. Fernando forewarned that China’s expanding maritime vision is in line with the political thinking of the country’s former Presidents, scholars and naval commanders. The maritime doctrine of the Chinese is such that it has long-term plans of blue-water capability power projections and far-seas defence towards a “global reach”.
The discussion then pivoted to the fact that Sri Lanka had a vital role to play amongst these major powers in balancing power projections in the IOR as well as in the island itself. Dr. Fernando laid out two strategies for Sri Lanka in this regard. The first was that our small island-nation needed to remain non-aligned in order to retain its relationship with each of the aforementioned countries. As an independent sovereign country which also occupies a central geographical location in the IOR, Sri Lanka must seek to maintain good relations with India, Pakistan and China as well as the external power – the US. The latter strategy suggested by Dr. Fernando was that of defensive-balancing – a countervailing strategy aimed at maximizing all the major power’s strategic interests in the island.
The Security Salon concluded with an engaging discussion with Dr. Fernando and members of the Diplomatic community, armed forces and other invitees who shared their thoughts on the strategic future of the Indian Ocean Region and its implications for Sri Lanka.