She presented her analysis to an audience of
highly-distinguished academics, researchers, members of the diplomatic core,
and officials from the Foreign Ministry, and representatives from the tri
forces of Sri Lanka: Army, Navy and Air Force. Dr. Geeta Madhavan delivered her
lecture at the invitation extended to her by the Director General Prof. Asanga
Abeyagoonesekara.
Dr. Geeta Madhavan set the context for her
lecture by explaining the fall of the Congress party during its second term in
politics by failing to deliver executive action due to poorly constructed
decisions.
She then spoke of the change in government to
Modi led Barathiya Janatha Party (BJP) of India. She recalled the expected
change was that BJP would bring in an era of BJP governance as once under Atal
Bihari Vajpayee. Dr. Madhavan described Vajpayee as an erudite and gentleman
politician.
Unfortunately the Modi-led BJP government failed
to deliver their promises due to disastrous decision of de-monetisation that
was supposed to address three main issues that had plagued India: black money,
terrorism and corruption. When nothing changed, and the government enthused
with a strong Hindu nationalism, it eroded established constitutional
structures which threatened the secularism values of India.
The above issues have presented a frightening
image to the minority population of India (around 25% of the population) which
is a sizeable constituency in a country of nearly 1.7 billion people. She spoke
about Tamil Nadu in particular which is a federal state with a proud Dravidian
Culture and heritage. The people of Tamil Nadu feel ignored and threatened by
the strong Hindu nationalist rhetoric and are unhappy that issues pertaining to
Tamil Nadu are not addressed by the BJ government at the Centre.
India’s elections and the formation of the
government at the Centre, according to Geeta Madhavan are a numbers game. The
Five Southern States and the Union Territory namely: Telangana, Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry have indicated they would most
likely vote out the BJP-led alliance which is reinforced by the anti-Modi “save
India” campaign of Mamta Banerjee of West Bengal.
Tamil Nadu is currently in crisis owing to
several highly contentious matters: Constitution Amendment Bill to provide 10%
reservation to economically backward, centralised education and national
eligibility entrance exams (NEET) for medical and engineering schools,
environmental poisoning by the Sterlite Copper plant in Thoothukudi, Neduvasal
protest on hydrocarbon extractions, and devastation of crops after the Gaja
Cyclone.
Geeta Madhavan explains “economically backward
is a condition but socially backward is a terrible anathema, to equate the two
is a dangerous thing”. She highlights how this negatively impacts on social
upliftment and speaking of these issues would help the DMK win instead of the
AIDMK which is currently allied with the BJP; mainly because the BJP is seen by
the voters of Tamil Nadu as an anti-Tamil party.
The crux of her argument is the issues in Tamil
Nadu and the Centre-periphery disconnect are so problematic to the extent, the
DMK alliance would rather concentrate on raising issues concerning Tamil Nadu
at the Centre and would not be inclined to bring up Indo-Lanka issues for
discussion. At least in the short term this alliance would not make a direct
impact on Ind0-Lanka relations.
While fringe parties such as that of Vaiko’s
would make noise, irrespective of their concerns on Sri Lankan issues the
Dravidians “have no time to shed tears for others”, when their issues are of
greater immediate concern.
The participants at the discussion raised
questions on the fishermen issue of the Palk Straight, that has soured
Indo-Lanka relations but Geeta Madhavan opine this would not strain the
bi-lateral relations as long as there are resilient and practical solutions and
initiatives from both sides.
Another question was on the citizenship issue
for Sri Lanka Tamils that have sought refuge in India, which Geeta Madhavan
points out, is not as grave as the current Rohingya Crisis or Afghan refugee
crisis. She highlighted the only Indian Parliamentarian to have raised the need
for a Refugee Bill to deal with the constant refugee inflow into India was
Shashi Tharoor, to no avail. She warns in the future, the government will
need a coherent law on refugee management in the likely event of spread of
Rohingya refugees all over India and the dangers of them being infested with
radical ideology.
Her final remarks were on the idea that India is
misconceived as a regional hegemon. She opine that Indian military
modernisation and expansion of the Navy is to protect India’s interests in the
Indian Ocean and India’s exclusive economic Zone (EEZ) and not for a showdown
with China.
India according to Geeta Madhavan remains a
cooperative state and future elections in India would not bring in drastic
change in Indo-Sri Lanka relations. The Indian establishment is a democracy
with no hegemonic designs.
